Friends, here is my fearless forecast: the year 2013 would be good for the Subic Bay Freeport!
Okay, this is not based on any quantifiable economic data and stats—but simply because the Mayans said so.
No, I’m not drunk while writing this; maybe tipsy, but not groggy. Hey, it’s the holidays!
So, the apocalypse did not happen, and the world did not end; which means onward we march to another 5000 years.
Incredibly, according to a global independent market research company, Ipsos, one in ten people believed that the Mayans have prophesied the end of the world at the close of the 12th Baktun—21 December 2012 to you and me. So much so that a number of governments have told their citizens that the world won’t end. The Chinese government even had to resort to arresting people who were spreading doom and gloom.
Ironically, the Mayans said people predicted wrong and that they, the Mayans themselves, did not interpret the end of their Long Count Calendar as the catastrophic end of the world. Their calendar has simply run out, they said; nothing more, nothing less. In fact, the Mayan elders said that the correct interpretation was that the world will be transformed for the better—not end; a new beginning, a renewal, more like.
In this context, we can then look back a bit at 2012 and try to predict how things will roll inside the Subic Bay Freeport in 2013. Let’s look at the big ones.
The proposed marine cargo diversion to Subic and Batangas will be a big boon to the Subic Bay Freeport. At present, Subic’s container terminals only use 6% of its actual capacity. The Maritime Conference, organized by the Subic Bay International Terminal Corp (SBITC), a Chamber member, and SBMA, held here last August certainly helped at making businesses in central and northern Luzon become aware of Subic’s cargo potential. We hope that the recent big push by the Subic-Clark Alliance for Development (SCAD), headed by former SBMA Chairman Felicito Payumo, will at last make it happen. The container terminals were actually built during Chairman Payumo’s term as head of the SBMA.
This planned cargo diversion was long time in the making. I remember this being a regular item in the agenda of the SBFCC’s Business Development Committee during its frequent meetings with former Administrator Armand Arreza in 2011. I think it was he who made the request to the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) to fund the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) study. In fact, the Subic Chamber is one of the first organizations the JICA talked to, in November 2011, regarding the study.
Should this push through, the year 2013 will certainly look promising to the marine cargo industry. It would also be a great income generation source for the SBMA.
Shipbuilding, too, is expected to continue to grow. Hanjin Subic, another Chamber member, which is now hiring more workers in addition to its 20,000 workforce, has catapulted the Philippines as the fourth largest shipbuilding country in the world. Add to that its new agreement with AMSEC, a subsidiary of Huntington Ingalls, to provide maintenance, repair, and logistics services to the US Navy, and you can very well imagine how huge this can be starting 2013.
Hanjin, in collaboration with the Home Development Mutual Fund (HDMF or Pag-Ibig) has even started building 1000 housing units in Castillejos for its workers, the biggest single housing project in the country today.
Shipbuilding in the country is so successful in stimulating the economy that the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has even invited nine Japanese shipbuilders to expand and set up operations here in the Philippines. It is now one of the government’s preferred industries under the Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) plan where a ton of perks and incentives are given to new entrants.
The Subic Bay International Airport is another one that is starting to show promise. Not only is general aviation seemed to be booming as evidenced by the success of Chamber member Aviation Concepts, it looks like there is a chance that a carrier, Astro Air International, might actually start its Subic-Taipei and Taipei-Boracay flights soon.
The increased VFA exercises is also seen as another activity that is expected to stimulate further the economic activity within the Freeport and surrounding areas. While regrettable that it has to happen because of the Scarborough and Spratly issues, we’ll take what we can. The end of the world has already passed anyway. The Subic Chamber has even formed a VFA Committee, headed by Joe Guthrie, to make sure to follow events as they unfold.
I predict, however, that it will be tourism that will shine brightest in 2013. It already did very well in 2012 despite all the ruckus on environment-related issues. The Department of Tourism (DOT) has even declared the Subic Bay Freeport as the “Premier Convention Capital of Central Luzon,” due mainly to the Subic Bay Exhibition and Convention Center (SBECC).
The SBECC, formerly the GVC Manufacturing building, was renovated around 2007. I vividly remember Armand Arreza telling me and John Corcoran, who was then the SBFCC President, when we visited the place while construction was going on, that he hopes it does not turn into a white elephant. A few months later, the 20th Ad Congress, the biggest event in the advertising industry, was held there and that started it all. It was one of the successful projects of SBMA and certainly one that helped spur tourism inside the Freeport.
While I am happy with the DOT declaration, I think that was a very modest and conservative pronouncement because the SBECC certainly rivals the Philippine International Convention Center, the Convention Center in Cebu, and even the World Trade Center in Manila. It is bigger than any of the three, truth be told.
Not only the SBECC, I was quite impressed, too, with how the SBMA’s Tourism Department, headed by Raul Marcelo, brought in and organized a good number of tourism events that continues to put the Subic Freeport on the map. I am so impressed with this department’s performance that when our good friend Susan Dudley gave notice (no, not because of the purported apocalypse), I had to scout from the tourism sector and found Donna Tamayo, a long-time acquaintance and now the Chamber’s Executive Director.
I am fairly certain that 2013 would be a banner year for tourism in the Freeport. Add to that Harbor Point, the newest and biggest mall in this area; possible airport commercial and general aviation flights; the likely completion of the Subic golf course; the scheduled renovation start of the Golden Dragon Resorts and Casino (former Legenda and newest Chamber member) this year; and then the completion of the Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Expressway (TPLEx) by middle of this year, which extends the SCTEx even more closer to Baguio, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for success.
Sure, we have our share of problems—smuggling and waste dumping to name a couple—but those will probably make us stronger, more alert, and learned. Two issues also: the CUSA and the Writ of Kalikasan on the coal-fired power plant, are both still in the courts. A decision on the latter will probably come out by next month while the former might take a bit longer. But, whatever the decisions of the courts will be, we can simply move on and continue to build the Freeport.
Incidentally, the ancient Mayans used a base-20 counting system (we use the decimal base-10) where a Katun translates into something like 20 years; and where 20 Katuns make for one Baktun. Their latest Katun ended at just about the same period as the 20th anniversary of the Subic Bay Freeport... and then it renews. Coincidence?
Yes, I agree with the Mayan elders that 2013 means a renewal. Yup, the 13th Baktun, it’ll bring forth prosperity, not upheaval.
Okay, that’s a pathetic wax poetic. But who cares. The world did not end. Happy New Year!
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