Deconstructing the Chinese Actions on Scarborough Shoal

With its current posturing, the present government of the People’s Republic of China seems to want the Scarborough Shoal. But what for and why now?

First off, China’s claim is based on historical accounts. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Liu Weimin, said China’s sovereignty over Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal) has full legal basis. He said China was the first to discover Huangyan Island, name it, incorporate it into its territory and exercise jurisdiction over it.

On the other hand, the Philippines has cartographic maps drawn in 1734 during the Spanish colonial times depicting the Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) as part of the country. Philippine flags have actually been raised on the area since the 1960’s. We even built a lighthouse on it. The US Navy stationed in Subic during their time even used the area as an impact range.

There’s your impasse right there.

The Philippine government has proposed taking the Scarborough Shoal issue to the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) but the Chinese government has rejected the idea, insisting on bilateral discussions and friendly consultations instead.

While the Philippines will likely submit the issue to ITLOS anyway, it will definitely not resolve the impasse. For how can a settlement be possible if only one party is present to abide by the ITLOS decision?

Now, if this shoal is somewhere in the middle of China and the Philippines, we probably would care less. But, this is only 124 nautical miles from the Philippines yet 472 nautical miles from China. The Subic Bay Freeport has a direct line of sight to it, in fact.

Back to the what and the why. Far from being an expert on foreign affairs, let me try to give it a go anyway from a layman’s point of view.

First, the popular allusion for the Chinese motivation on its incursion—the Scarborough has vast oil reserves underneath it.

Really?

To date, there is no finding that oil is indeed present in the Scarborough area. Further, China’s accelerated demand for crude oil has actually decreased and replaced by an increased importation of natural gas which is cheaper. Besides, if there ever is oil in the area, wouldn’t China simply buy the oil from the Philippines? It would be cheaper than buying from somewhere in the Middle East. And in the process, they do not alienate their neighbors. No, I’d say it’s not oil they are trying to go after.

Second, do they simply want to greedily grab and expand? This is highly unlikely. China has the second largest land area in the world at 3.7 million square miles. A miniscule addition would not matter at all especially when it means an economic whiplash, no matter how small, is expected to be a result.

Perhaps they are just trying to be funny by being a bully? If so, being good at tagging names, we can simply call their actions Tsinulying (Tsina Bullying) and be back merrily going about our daily lives. But that’s too adolescent; perhaps not for some of our politicians, but certainly so for an emerging super power.

So what is it?

China is not a country of dullards. They invented the compass, papermaking, printing, and the gunpowder for heaven’s sake. They could not have become one of today’s great economic powers by sheer luck. It would be unwise to make such an assumption.

China’s trade with the rest of Asia has been increasing substantially as well. No, there is not a reason why they would want to suddenly go the opposite way.

A safer supposition would be that they are doing this for a reason, a reason rational enough to substantiate their actions, perhaps something even borne out of fear.

Late last year, US President Obama told leaders in an Asia-Pacific summit that the US is “here to stay.” He announced plans to set up a military base in Australia and chided China for refusing to discuss its South China Sea disputes at regional forums. The recent talks in the Philippines about possibly resurrecting the hosting of US military bases were also an offshoot of the US strategy.

China countered. Army Major General Luo Yuan responded that the US has been positioning forces on China’s periphery with the clear aim and intention of containing China. He further emphasized that, “The United States has committed a fatal strategic error. It has misjudged its foes, it has placed its strategic focus in the wrong location, and its strategic means are wrong.”

China’s actions on the Scarborough seemed to indicate, therefore, a reaction to the encirclement strategy being applied by the US. Whether one action/reaction is better than the other, the Philippines, having better diplomatic relations with the US, will generally trust it more than China.

But no, China‘s political leaders have not lost their minds. Invading the Scarborough Shoal is far from their goals. China is simply using it to gain leverage in future negotiations.

So no, unless some fool starts firing bullets or some politician starts making wild and unprovoked accusations, actual warfare is not likely to happen. For the meantime, we just have to stand our ground.

The Philippines seemed to be caught in the middle of the US and China posturing. But, as in business, problems can sometimes be converted to opportunities. And since we are caught in the middle anyway, we might as well work to be the glue that will bind the two powers together.

This, me thinks, should be our strategy—for lack of anything else.

(SBFCC Newsletter Volume 17 Issue 5)